Thursday, March 26, 2020

VIRUS HUNTERS

VIRUS HUNTERS 


On December 9, 2004, primatologists working in the Dja Biosphere Reserve in 
southern Cameroon collected specimens from a dead chimpanzee. The chimp was 
sprawled out on the forest floor, eyes closed, but seemingly unmolested by a 
human or other predator. The team was rightfully concerned. 
Belgian scientist Isra Deblauwe and her Cameroonian colleagues had started 
their long, tedious work some three years earlier. In the tradition of primatologists 
like Jane Goodall, their goal was to study wild great apes, our closest living rela- 
tives, to learn about them and ourselves. 
And a few years later, they produced some interesting results. The team re- 
ported that, like other chimpanzee populations, the chimpanzees in the Dja used 
tools. In particular, they modified sticks to extract honey from underground bee 
nests. Chimpanzees, like all apes, including ourselves, love honey, and the infor- 
mation from the Dja team would add to the understanding of how different chim- 
panzee cultures use tools in different ways. 
But on that rainy December day in 2004, honey was the last thing on the scien- 
tists’ minds. Four days after taking samples from the first dead chimpanzee, they 
took samples from another. Then on December 19 they took samples from a dead 
gorilla. This was worrying. Since the primatologists only followed a fraction of the 
population of apes in the Dja, what they’d seen was likely to be just the beginning. 
Many other unidentified apes might be dead, valuable wild kin whom the team had 
spent years working to understand. The consequences for conservation and re- 
search could be considerable. 
But the threat to wild apes, while significant, was not the only problem. The re- 
searchers knew that the Ebola virus had wiped out large numbers of apes in 
Gabon, only a few hundred kilometers to the south. Ebola not only kills chim- 
panzees but from time to time has also jumped to humans causing dramatic and 
potentially epidemic-inducing cases. They also knew that one of their primatologist 
colleagues had acquired Ebola in the Ivory Coast when investigating deaths just 
like these. Whatever caused these ape deaths was not to be taken lightly. 
Fortunately, they had responded according to a plan. First and foremost, the 
primatologists knew that they should not directly touch the carcasses. Months

earlier, when the first dead animals had been seen, they had sent a message to col- 
leagues in Yaoundé, Cameroon’s capital. The message in turn was transmitted to 
Mat LeBreton, the dedicated and skilled biologist who leads our ecology team and 
has pioneered a number of new techniques in viral ecology. Based in Yaoundé, 
LeBreton helped support an international team, including relevant ministries and 
laboratories in central Africa and Germany on the outbreak investigation that would 
follow. 
The investigating team rapidly put together and deployed a mission to the Dja, a 
stunningly beautiful and unique rain forest habitat located along one of the major 
tributaries of the massive Congo River. There they worked with the primatologists 
to collect the specimens. They managed to obtain specimens from the skull and 
shoulder of the first chimpanzee. They also collected a specimen from the leg of 
the second chimpanzee, the jaw of the gorilla, and some muscle from a fourth vic- 
tim— chimpanzee—who died in early January 2005. 
The safely preserved specimens then made the trip to expert laboratories. They 
went to the high containment laboratory of Eric Leroy, the virologist whom we 
worked with to discover the new strain of the Ebola virus discussed in chapter 5. 
The specimens also went to our collaborator Fabian Leendertz, a veterinarian and 
microbiologist working at the Robert Koch Institute in Germany who has perfected 
the study of ape microbes during many years spent shuttling between field sites in 
Africa and his lab in Berlin. 
The results were surprising. While we all had come to assume that the same 
wave of Ebola knocking down ape populations south of the border in Gabon had 
killed the animals in the Dja, the specimens all came back negative for the Ebola 
virus. They were, however, all positive for another deadly agent—anthrax. 
In 2004 Leendertz and his colleagues had reported a similar die-off of chim- 
panzees in the Taï forest of the Ivory Coast due to anthrax. So while the gorilla 
death in the Dja was the first of its kind, anthrax was already known to be a killer of 
forest apes. Strange perhaps but not unprecedented. How exactly a bacteria nor- 
mally found in grasslands ruminants got to the apes in the Dja and Taï forests is 
still a mystery. There were some theories. Anthrax spores remain viable for long 
periods of time, even up to a hundred years. The spores can contaminate water 
supplies, so the apes may have picked it up from lakes or creeks. They may also 
have become infected while hunting or scavenging on ruminants, such as forest

antelopes, that had themselves been infected. Or perhaps, at least in the Taï forest 
outbreak, neighboring farms had seeded the outbreak when the apes had foraged 
for food in cropland contaminated by anthrax from cattle. 
Whatever the route of infection, the findings from the Dja and from the earlier 
animal epidemic in the Ivory Coast showed that the declining populations of 
African apes had more than hunting and habitat loss to blame. Viruses like Ebola 
have swept through large swaths of the remaining habitats of wild apes, and now 
anthrax must also be considered a threat to these valuable wild animals. From a 
personal perspective, having worked with wild chimpanzees and helped habituate 
populations of gorillas in Uganda, I feel that the mounting threats to our closest 
living relatives is a tragic loss to the heritage of our particular form of life.

From the perspective of my work tracking and preventing pandemics, the 
deaths pointed out another glaring weakness in the way that we catch these

epidemics. The discovery of anthrax in the Dja forest did not represent a success in 
pandemic prevention. It was rather the epidemiological equivalent of dumb luck. 
Only a trivial fraction of the global ape populations are under the watchful eye of 
woefully underfunded primatologists. If we’re relying on these scientists to regu- 
larly capture the animal epidemics that could signal future human plagues, then 
we’re destined to fail. To truly catch epidemics early, we’ll need much more. 


How can we hunt down deadly viruses and control them? A few primatologists 
finding dead animals is not a surveillance system. But what is the right way to 
catch new epidemics and stop them before they spread? This section will explore 
just that: the contemporary science of pandemic prevention. It will discuss the 
ways that my team and other colleagues and collaborators are working to create 
systems that will be able to catch and stop new epidemics before you (or CNN) 
even know about them. Preventing pandemics is a bold idea, yet no bolder than 
when cardiologists in the 1960s began to think that they could prevent heart at- 
tacks, a medical advance that was radical at the time but is now largely taken for 
granted. 
My own thinking on this dates to the late 1990s when I joined Don Burke at 
Johns Hopkins and agreed to establish a field site aimed at monitoring humans 
and animals for new viruses in central Africa. It was an exciting time, when the idea 
that simply responding to pandemics would no longer be sufficient was truly in the 
air. I remember spending many afternoons in Don’s office alternating between ur- 
gent scribbling on the whiteboard and thinking out loud about what would be 
needed to accomplish the task. 
Among the ideas that we generated during that time, one lasting concept partic- 
ularly stands out: viral chatter. When he coined the term, Don did so as a direct 
parallel to intelligence chatter. One way of thinking about this is to ask the question: 
how do security services prevent terror events? 
Intelligence services use a range of techniques to monitor for potentially threat- 
ening events, but among their most valuable tools is the monitoring of chatter. 
Intelligence agencies scanning e-mails, phone calls, and online chat rooms can fol- 
low the frequency that certain signals occur. If a journalist were to fire off an e-mail 
that included the words al-Quaeda and bomb for example, it would be picked up by

an automated system that filters for suspicious key words. Having said that, it 
would not likely make it to the desk of an analyst, since the systems also register e- 
mail accounts and IP addresses and would hopefully flag the chatter with journalist. 
During testimony on the September 2001 attacks on the United States, the for- 
mer CIA director George Tenet said that the “system was blinking red” in the 
months leading up to 9/11. Similarly, although it was an accidental event, the day 
that the Chernobyl reactor melted down in 1986 there was a significant spike in 
message traffic in the former Soviet Union. Knowing what sorts of key words to 
look for and who the usual suspects are, as well as understanding how they 
communicate with each other can provide valuable intelligence to help predict rare 
but important events. 
As Don and I considered it, we asked ourselves what a global system to monitor 
the viral equivalent of such chatter would look like. How could we monitor the 
many thousands of interactions that occur between humans and animals in order 
to detect the chatter events—in our case the jumping of novel viruses to hu- 
mans—that would signal a looming plague? 
Clearly, a system that depended on communities like the primatologists, whose 
primary focus was studying animal behavior and ecology, would not be sufficient. 
An ideal system would monitor global viral diversity in humans and animal popula- 
tions and detect when agents jumped from animals to humans. While theoretically 
possible, such a system defied resources and technology at the time. 
As we’ll discuss in greater detail in chapter 10, the current laboratory methods 
for accurate and comprehensive surveys of the diversity of viruses in people and 
animals, while improving all the time, are not yet at the point of being deployed 
globally. Also, the simple logistics of monitoring everyone would be impossible. 
To begin, we’d need a much more focused system—a system focused on a small 
set of sentinels, key populations that would allow us to monitor viral chatter with 
the resources we currently have. 


I remember vividly the first time I thought about the role of hunting in the trans- 
mission of infectious agents. While a graduate student at Harvard, I spent my first 
two years focused on the study of wild ape populations. Among the pleasures of 
being a graduate student in the Department of Biological Anthropology was being

able to interact with one of the leading professors, Irv DeVore. Irv, a leading teach- 
er and thinker in primatology and human evolution, has a striking head of white 
hair and a Vandyke beard to match. The son of a Texan Baptist minister, he taught 
human evolution with the fervor of an evangelist and is beloved among the scores 
of prominent scientists who benefitted from his tutelage.



From 1993 through 1995 I worked for Irv as a teaching fellow for the class he co- 
taught at the time with the Harvard psychologist Marc Hauser. The course, Human 
Behavioral Biology, was referred to as “Sex” by the Harvard undergraduates be- 
cause of the focus on human reproduction. During those years, I had the oppor- 
tunity to meet with Irv in his office on the top floor of the Peabody Museum and on 
occasion at the wonderful evolution-soaked beer hours that proliferated at faculty 
homes. 
On one particularly memorable afternoon, I remember speaking to Irv in his 
wood-paneled office in the Peabody. During our freewheeling conversation, the 
topic reverted to my growing obsession at the time—microbes. It was then that Irv 
told me a story that would help put me on the research track I’ve taken for the last 
fifteen years.

During one of his summers spent on Martha’s Vineyard, Irv had come across a 
dead rabbit while driving home. Assuming it was a healthy animal that had been 
killed by a car and being a lifelong hunter who had worked with indigenous hunters 
throughout the world, Irv did what seemed natural for him. He picked up the rabbit 
and brought it home, where he subsequently dressed and cooked it for supper. 
Within a few days Irv was very ill. He experienced fever, diminished appetite, 
and severe exhaustion. His lymph nodes enlarged. Fortunately, he went to an 
emergency room immediately, because as it turned out he’d acquired tularemia, a 
potentially fatal bacteria that often infects wild rabbits and other rodents. Death oc- 
curs in less than 1 percent of people with prompt treatment, but had he not been 
treated quickly, he may very well have died a painful death from multiple organ fail- 
ure. 
Irv likely acquired tularemia when skinning the infected rabbit. A common route 
of entry for this bug occurs during butchering, when the bacteria can be inhaled 
into the lungs. By the time Irv finished his story, my mind was racing with the 
possibilities. One of Irv’s earlier works was a book called Man the Hunter, and he’d 
spent many years living with hunter-gatherer populations in Africa, populations 
that don’t practice farming and live exclusively on wild foods. Our conversation 
veered to the idea of working with these populations, who no doubt had extraor- 
dinarily high rates of exposure to the microbes in the animals around them. 


In 1998, a few years after my conversation with Irv, I wrote about the role of hunt- 
ing in disease transmission. In the article, I proposed that hunters could act as 
sentinels—and if we studied them over time we could get a sense of what, how, 
and when microbes were jumping into humans. During my conversations with 
Don Burke a few years later, this became a common point of discussion for us as 
we explored the concept of viral chatter. How might hunters lead us to the critical 
microbes making that fateful jump into the human species? 
When Don recruited me to join his growing program at Johns Hopkins, he had

already established a close collaboration with a Cameroonian scientist examining 
retroviruses, like HIV, in the region of central Africa where they originally emerged. 
I would spend many years working with Don and the Cameroonian colleague, 
Colonel Mpoudi Ngole. During those years, we would put the foundation in place 
for the first real system attempting to catch novel pandemics before they emerge. 
One of the first people I met when I arrived in central Africa was the aforemen- 
tioned Colonel Mpoudi (pronounced m-POODY), a large, imposing, mustachioed 
man who so consistently wore a uniform that I wondered at times if he slept in it. 
The Colonel, as I refer to him to this day, is a quiet but incredibly productive physi- 
cian and scientist. He is known by many of the people in Cameroon as Colonel 
SIDA (SIDA is the French acronym for AIDS) for his years of relentless work to 
stem the tide of the AIDS pandemic in central Africa. The Colonel has a subtle yet 
commanding presence, and he’s used to getting his way. During my first years in 
Cameroon, we did battle from time to time, fighting over the best way to use scarce 
resources. Yet I always respected him as an effective and caring leader who knew 
how to negotiate better than anyone I’ve ever met, and even more importantly knew 
how to get things done. Over time, he came to be an important mentor and dear 
friend.

Among the subjects that Don and the Colonel had thought carefully about was 
bushmeat, and it would be a central subject for the work we’d do in central Africa. 
Bushmeat is another word for wild game, although historically the term tends to
refer to wild game in tropical locations. In reality, when my friends hunt and eat 
venison in their yearly New England ritual, they’re eating bushmeat. And when I 
visit my favorite seafood place in San Francisco—Swan Oyster Bar—the living sea 
urchin they carve open and serve me in the shell is also bushmeat. Yet as we 
learned in chapter 2, from the perspective of microbes not all bushmeat is created 
equal. 


When we started our work in Cameroon, the overriding objective was to under- 
stand why HIV in central Africa was so diverse compared to the fatal but genetically 
bland and homogenous cosmopolitan versions of the virus that hit most of the 
world. The idea was to sample HIV from people throughout rural regions and 
hopefully explain why so many different genetic variants of the virus existed in this 
part of the world. All of the evidence pointed toward this region as the place where 
HIV began, but why did it remain so diverse twenty years after the pandemic had 
exploded? 
To answer the question, we teamed up with some of Don’s former colleagues at 
WRAIR (Walter Reed Army Institute of Research), where he had spent most of his 
career. I remember first meeting the dynamic duo—Jean Carr and Francine Mc- 
Cutchan—at their unremarkable office space in unremarkable Rockville, Maryland. 
But there was nothing at all bland about the work they’d done. 
Over the five years before I met them, the pair had revolutionized the study of 
HIV by creating methods to sequence entire HIV genomes and systematically study 
where their various genetic bits and pieces had come from. Prior to their work, 
people had largely stitched together smaller pieces of genetic information to get a 
picture of the sequence of the entire virus. Carr and McCutchan had come up with 
a way to pull the entire ten thousand bits up in one fell swoop. This permitted them 
to dive into the history of the different genes that made up the viruses. 
Since HIV recombines, or has the capacity to mix and match genes among dif- 
ferent strains, they needed to form a new set of analytical tools to understand

which bits fit together and from where each bit had descended. They were prac- 
ticing virus genealogy. But instead of piecing together the ancestry of a Scandi- 
navian monarch, they were determining the parental strains of particular HIV virus- 
es and mapping them globally to try and reconstruct the course of the pandemic— 
plotting out a map of how HIV had spread and mixed. 
Along with a dedicated team of local scientists, the Colonel and I would work 
over the next few years to try to sort out the causes for the intense genetic diversity 
of HIV in central Africa. Basically, we wanted a snapshot of what HIV looked like 
before it went global. We started by setting up shop in rural villages throughout 
Cameroon. The work in the villages was coordinated by Ubald Tamoufe, a soft- 
spoken and highly meticulous engineer turned biomedical scientist, who still co- 
ordinates our joint work in central Africa. We didn’t pick just any rural villages. In 
order to avoid capturing the relatively boring garden-variety strains of HIV that now 
spread throughout the globe and even in regions like Cameroon where the pan- 
demic began, we picked isolated villages found where the roads end.

To say these places were challenging to get to only hints at the complex logistics
required to obtain the high-quality specimens Carr and McCutchan needed. These 
were some of the most remote regions of central Africa. Among their incredible 
stories comes one from a beloved project driver, Ndongo, who like the Colonel, 
was largely referred to by his rank, sergent-chef, rather than his proper name. Ser- 
gent-Chef once had to abandon his car on one side of a river, then crossed it by 
small canoe to help our team get specimens from the small village of Adjala in the 
far southeast of the country.

Obtaining the specimens from these incredibly remote locations held out par- 
ticular challenges and frustrations but also wonderful experiences. During one
particularly memorable visit to a rural village, this one in DRC, I spent the day with 
hunters in the forest. Upon my return, I learned that a baby boy had just been born 
to a woman in the village and that they wanted to honor me by giving the child my 
name. Since one of the villagers had heard me referred to as Docteur Natan 
(French for “Dr. Nathan,” as I’m sometimes called in that part of the world), that 
was the name they chose for the boy. Not “Nathan” but “Doctor Nathan.” The ex- 
pert research logistician, Jeremy Alberga, who has kept our administrative, logis- 
tical, and financial operations organized over the years, joked that the name would 
decrease the need for burdensome higher education. The boy was already a doctor. 
But what exactly were the specimens we were collecting? To start with, we need- 
ed blood. From the people who enrolled in our studies, we collected two tubes of 
blood using high tech tubes that would allow us to easily separate the different 
parts of blood when we got back to the laboratory in Yaoundé. As for the animals, 
at least to start with, we worked using a simple but innovative approach, a method 
developed by Mat LeBreton. 
When I originally met Mat in Yaoundé, he was just completing a monumental 
survey of snakes in Cameroon. Interestingly, he’d done the majority of his sam- 
pling by leaving pots of formalin preservative in villages across Cameroon. Since 
humans throughout the world kill snakes when they find them, he simply asked 
them to put the dead snakes in the formalin pots, which he’d collect from time to 
time to study their distribution and diversity. As we talked, we realized that a sim- 
ilar approach could be used to easily collect thousands of specimens from ani- 
mals. We could adapt the filter-paper techniques I’d learned from Janet and Bal 
Singh in Malaysia years ago and simply pass out the baseball-card-sized sampling 
papers to hunters and let them collect specimens whenever they came into contact 
with blood. The technique proved incredibly successful, and we now have among 
the most comprehensive wild animal blood collections in the world.

In addition to the challenges of simply getting to tough places to collect spec- 
imens, we had the difficulty of communicating our intentions to potential partic- 
ipants in our studies. Gossip and rumors abound in these small villages, and the 
villager’s range of speculations about nefarious purposes for the blood we needed 
from them was broad. Fortunately, among the excellent staff were some of the 
most talented communicators I’ve had the good fortune to work with. 
Particularly notable was Paul Delon Menoutou, who had spent years as the chief 
health correspondent for Cameroonian radio and television, joining us upon his re- 
tirement. In many of the rural villages where we worked, people had never had ac- 
cess to television and didn’t recognize his face, but when he began to speak, they 
instantly knew his voice. As a trusted and amazingly talented communicator on 
health issues, he helped us to ease our way into these communities, which could 
otherwise resist answering the scientific questions we asked. He also helped con- 
vey critical health messages that were a fundamental part of our mission. 


Over the first few years in Cameroon, we managed to build a functional laboratory 
in an amazing century-old building that hailed from the German colonial period in

the capital of Yaoundé. We also established connections to seventeen rural villages 
in fascinating, biologically diverse parts of the country. The high-quality frozen 
specimens we obtained held clues to the problems of explaining HIV diversity and, 
as we’d find, much more. 
By the time they got into the Rockville laboratories, the specimens had moved 
thousands of miles by road and air yet remained frozen and viable for testing. I 
spent some time working in the lab myself, anxious to see exactly what was in the 
specimens. However, much of the heavy lifting of characterizing the viruses in the 
specimens was left to McCutchan and Carr and their capable lab teams. 
In the end, they found remarkable diversity in these HIV specimens. Twelve of 
the villages we worked in had completely unique forms of HIV—viruses that were 
patched together of different sorts of HIV variants, ones that had never been seen 
together before. In nine of the villages, there were two or more of these unique 
forms of HIV. Our conclusion was that these locations likely showed what HIV 
looked like prior to its global spread. Essentially, following the entry of the virus 
from chimpanzees in the early twentieth century, it likely maintained itself in small 
villages like the ones we’d studied. Over time, as the virus changed, the newly di- 
verged forms came into contact with each other, shuffling their genetic information 
and producing an incredible assortment of genetic novelties. Only some of these 
strains would win the microbial lottery and spread. The rest would remain inter- 
esting viruses near the place where their ancestor viruses continued to live in wild 
chimpanzees, staying put but almost certainly causing disease like their more pro- 
lific kin. 
While in these rural villages, we did more than just collect specimens to answer 
our questions about HIV diversity. We also looked into the ways that people inter- 
acted with wildlife, a study coordinated at the time by Adria Tassy Prosser, an an- 
thropologist and epidemiologist now based at the Centers for Disease Control in 
Atlanta. We learned that people in these rural villages had an incredible and inti- 
mate level of contact with wild animals. The process of butchering involved direct 
contact with virtually all of the blood and body fluids that viruses call home. As we

provide basic food to needy families. It is subsistence, not entertainment. Hunting 
is hard work. It requires tremendous energy for a fairly modest outcome in calories. 
While many of the hunters we work with are excellent at hunting and some even 
enjoy it, most would likely choose a cheap and nutritious form of protein that 
didn’t involve hours tracking through incredibly hard-to-negotiate landscapes— 
fish, for example. I remember my encounter with a man who was headed to his vil- 
lage, carrying a monkey he’d hunted on his back. One of my first thoughts when 
looking at the bloody and battered animal was how unfortunate it was to lose such 
a beautiful and important part of our planet’s wild heritage. But I also saw that the 
man was wearing flip-flops and ragged clothing and was sweaty and dirty from a 
whole day in the forest. He certainly was doing this for his livelihood and not for 
sport! Subsistence-level hunters are not the enemies and, as we’ll explore further in 
chapter 12, the solution is to work with them rather than against them.

As we pushed forward with our work to characterize the diversity of HIV among 
these rural hunting communities, we also began what would become a main focus 
of my work over the past ten years—to discover completely novel viruses jumping 
into these highly exposed peoples. To do so, we approached one of the world’s top

laboratory teams for discovering novel retroviruses, the broader family of viruses 
that includes HIV—the CDC’s Retrovirology Branch. 
The CDC team included Tom Folks and Walid Heneine, two of the world’s lead- 
ers in retrovirology, but the person I’d spend most of my time working with was 
Bill Switzer. Bill has a youthful appearance that belies his actual age and a mellow 
demeanor that masks his relentless drive to chart the evolution of some of the 
most interesting viruses of our time. Whether face-to-face or by phone, Bill and I 
would spend the next ten years working together on an almost daily basis to assess 
what viruses besides HIV had jumped into those hunting populations. 
My first major discovery with Bill was of an ominously named virus, the simian 
foamy virus (SFV). SFV received its name because of the way it kills cells. When 
you look at a culture infected with the virus, the cells die and bubble up, leading to 
a foamy appearance under a microscope. It’s a virus that infects virtually all non- 
human primates. And since each primate has its own particular version of the 
virus, it provides a great model for comparison. By sequencing the viruses, if we 
were then to find one in humans we’d know exactly what animal it had come from. 
Interestingly, humans have no indigenous foamy virus. Bill and his colleagues 
showed some years ago that foamy virus has the unusual feature among viruses of 
cospeciation. In other words, the common ancestor of all living primates some 
seventy million years ago had a foamy virus, and as the various branches of the pri- 
mate tree speciated over time, the virus passed along. The amazing result is that 
the evolutionary tree of foamy viruses and the evolutionary tree of primates are 
virtually identical. SFV may very well have been one of the viruses we lost during 
the pathogen bottleneck discussed in chapter 3. 
When Bill and I and our colleagues started the work with primate foamy viruses 
we already knew that they could theoretically infect humans, as a few lab workers 
had previously acquired the virus. But we had no idea if this occurred under natural 
settings. We were surprised and quite excited to find that it did. I remember well 
the exact day it became clear. We were working together in Bill’s lab, and I went 
downstairs to get the images of a lab test called the Western blot, which shows

whether or not individuals have produced antibodies against, in this case, the simi- 
an foamy virus. Bill came down that day to help me interpret the images. As soon 
as we saw the results, it was obvious that some of our study participants had been 
infected. I remember Bill and I looking at each other with equal parts shock and ex- 
citement. In a tangible way the work over the past years changed dramatically at 
that moment. To this day I have a framed copy of the Western blot on my wall.

On the one hand, there was relief—the research had succeeded. But there was 
also a sense of foreboding for us—retroviruses, viruses from the class that had
produced HIV, were crossing into humans. And if we were seeing it within the first 
few hundred hunters we’d studied, it was by no means rare. 
Over the coming months we saw that in fact a number of the people in our 
study who had reported hunting and butchering nonhuman primates had been ex- 
posed to SFV. More amazingly, some of the exposures had gone on to become 
long-lasting infections. After finding evidence that these individuals produced anti- 
bodies to the virus, we tried to obtain actual SFV genetic sequence, and what we 
saw surprised us. We found multiple people who were infected with strains of SFV 
from primates, ranging from the DeBrazza’s guenon, a small leaf-eating monkey, to 
the massive lowland gorilla. To our great satisfaction, we found that the results of 
our behavioral surveys matched. The gorilla SFV, for example, came from a man 
who had reported hunting and butchering gorilla meat. While many of the people 
in our survey had exposure to primates, few participated in the dangerous and 
highly specialized hunting of gorillas. The link was a smoking gun—the gorilla 
hunter had acquired the virus while hunting or butchering his prey. 
The finding provided both a sense of adulation and fear. Most virologists would 
be lying if they said they didn’t enjoy finding something completely new. It had 
taken us years of hard work to line up the funding, find the local collaborating 
scientists who knew how to accomplish the work, set up a lab in central Africa, 
establish village outreach, collect specimens, store and ship them through the 
complexities of international agreements, and conduct the complicated laboratory 
work necessary to find an actual virus. The results showed that our system worked 
and that we were right in guessing that high levels of exposure to animals would 
lead to infection with novel viruses. Yet, the first evidence that new retroviruses 
were moving into humans also suggested that people’s faith in the existing public 
health structures—that they would inform us when novel viruses were moving into 
humans—was misguided. We were only beginning to see just how misguided it 
was. 
In the following year, we went on to study yet another group of retroviruses, the 
T-lymphotropic viruses (TLVs). SFV was a virus with no real human precedents.

Before our work, only a handful of laboratory workers had been infected, so deter- 
mining how much the virus was likely to spread and cause disease—and its poten- 
tial to become a pandemic—was unclear. Not so for the TLVs. It’s long been 
known that humans around the world are infected with two different varieties of 
TLV—HTLV-1 and HTLV-2; in fact, some twenty million people have these viruses. 
While some individuals can be infected without disease, many get sick from ill- 
nesses ranging from leukemia to paralysis. These viruses have pandemic potential. 
Clearly, if completely novel TLVs were moving from animals to humans, public 
health officials should know about it. Our results from SFV suggested this was a 
real possibility. 
Going into the study, Bill and I knew that each of the two varieties of human 
TLV came from primates—just as HIV had. We also knew that another group of 
TLVs existed in primates that hadn’t yet been found in humans—the Simian T- 
lymphotropic Virus 3, known as STLV-3—so we began there. We screened the sam- 
ples carefully, and as predicted, we found it—a virus infecting human hunters that 
was clearly unlike HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 and fell squarely with the viruses in the 
STLV-3 group. This was an important scientific finding for us. STLV-3 had the 
potential to cross into humans and was on the move. Even more surprising was an 
entirely new human TLV found in a single individual from eastern Cameroon—a 
virus we called HTLV-4. 
The combination of finding a number of new SFVs in people exposed to pri- 
mate bushmeat in central Africa and two entirely novel TLVs in the same popu- 
lation changed the way that we thought about our work. While it was theoretically 
clear that people exposed to a wide range of wildlife would acquire microbes from 
these animals, we didn’t know at the start whether monitoring those populations 
was practical or what such a system would look like. As we began the long and 
plodding work to determine the extent to which the new SFVs and TLVs were 
spreading and causing disease (work that continues to this day), our thinking 
opened up. We began to seriously consider that monitoring people highly exposed 
to wildlife could be a globally deployed system to capture viral chatter.

In 2005 I took a long shot. I applied to an unusual program sponsored by the Na- 
tional Institutes of Health (NIH), the largest government funder of biomedical re- 
search in the world. The NIH had supported my work in the past, but the world- 
class institution didn’t perfectly match the work I hoped to do in the future. While 
the NIH has a broad ranging program, it does not distribute its resources evenly. 
The NIH specializes in funding laboratory research rather than field research. It fo- 
cuses its energy largely on research in more reductionist cell biology—work that 
focuses on very clear hypotheses that provide very clear yes or no answers. A pro- 
gram to spearhead a brand-new global monitoring effort to chart viral chatter and 
control pandemics was not something that would normally be supported. Yet in 
2004 the NIH began a completely new program—the NIH Director’s Pioneer 
Award Program—aimed at sponsoring innovative research not normally supported 
by the NIH mission. The program gave grantees $2.5 million and five years to do 
largely whatever they felt was necessary to advance their scientific objectives. In the 
fall of 2005 I was among the fortunate individuals to get the award. 
At this point, the pieces were beginning to fall into place. Certainly $2.5 million 
was nowhere near what would be needed to roll out a global monitoring system, 
but it was a good start. It allowed me to begin truly thinking about which key viral 
hotspots around the world needed the most urgent monitoring. Some key regions 
came to mind right away. The work with Jared Diamond and Claire Panosian had 
shown that Africa and Asia provided the lion’s share of our major infectious dis- 
eases. Those would be the places to start. 
In the coming years, along with my team and a stunning range of local collab- 
orators, I would take the model we’d developed in Cameroon and begin to deploy it 
in a number of other countries in central Africa. With the help of dedicated field 
scientists like Corina Monagin, who has become expert at making field sites in 
sensitive and difficult areas function, I’d renew collaborations from my years in 
Malaysia and begin to work with new sets of colleagues to establish programs in
China and Southeast Asia. We’d set up the beginnings of a system to capture glob- 
al viral chatter. Along with a growing number of colleagues worldwide, we would 
push ourselves to ask how we could best find new viruses. How could we capture 
a much higher percentage of the new viruses killing humans and infecting animals? 
In the coming chapters, we’ll explore the results of this work. I’ll also discuss 
some of the cutting-edge tools employed to improve our ability to detect pan- 
demics before they spread. While the threats associated with pandemics are large 
and growing, so too are the approaches and technologies to address them.


VIRAL RUSH

VIRAL RUSH


Imagine the following. In a large city, let’s say Manila, residents in a densely packed 
residential district report foul odors to local environmental health offices. Some 
hours later small pets begin to fall sick. Veterinarians confirm an uptick in the 
number of sick animals in the neighborhood. Around twenty-four hours after the 
first calls reporting the strange smell, local physicians note an increase in patients 
reporting blisters and ulcers on their skin. A few individuals report nausea and 
vomiting. 
At around forty-eight hours the first patients hit the emergency rooms. They 
have fever, headache, shortness of breath, and chest pain. Some of them appear on 
the verge of going into shock. At the same time some of the individuals with nau- 
sea are getting worse—they’re experiencing bloody diarrhea. 
As the days go on the numbers increase. By the end of the first week, nearly ten 
thousand individuals have been hospitalized. Over five thousand of these people 
have died painful deaths. At the end they can barely breathe—their skin blue from 
lack of oxygen. Eventually, septic shock and severe brain inflammation strike, 
killing most of them. As the number of deaths increase, journalists flock to the 
scene. Manila residents attempt a mass exit, and despite the best intentions of the 
government, the city verges on the brink of widespread and crippling panic. 
The case I’ve outlined is a hypothetical one. But just barely. In June 1993 the 
Aum Shinrikyo cult aerosolized a liquid suspension of Bacillus anthracis from the 
top of an eight-story building in the Kameido neighborhood in the eastern part of 
Tokyo. They launched a bioterror assault on one of the largest and most densely 
packed cities in the world. 
The good news is that they failed. An analysis written in 2004 states that their 
choice of a relatively benign anthrax strain, low concentrations of the bacterial 
spores, an ineffective dispersal system, and a clogged spray device all served to 
make the 1993 incident in Tokyo a flash in the pan. No humans got sick, although 
some pets appear to have died as a result of the release. 
If the Aum Shinrikyo cult had come across a more deadly version of anthrax and 
used even slightly better dispersal systems, things could have turned out quite 
similar to our hypothetical scenario above. We know that the apocalyptic cult had

looked for more than just anthrax. The group set up multiple laboratories and dab- 
bled in cultivating many agents. They played with botulinum toxin, anthrax, 
cholera, and Q fever. In 1993 they led a large group of doctors and nurses to the 
Democratic Republic of Congo, ostensibly on a medical mission, but actually in an 
attempt to bring back an isolate of the Ebola virus for use in their grim operations.

Even if they had succeeded in their anthrax release, the deaths and disruption 
caused by Aum Shinrikyo would have been restricted to the individuals exposed to 
the spores they released. Anthrax does not transmit from person to person. 
Though deadly, it is not contagious. But anthrax is only one of many agents that 
could be used by terrorist groups. Bioterror is among the most serious concerns 
for security experts. It is an ideal tool for the weaker parties in so-called asymmet- 
rical warfare, where enemies differ significantly in the resources and firepower they 
can draw on for battle. Even a weak opponent, like a terrorist group, can wreak 
havoc with the right combination of microbe and dispersal. 
Microbes hold great potential for terror groups. They are much easier to gain 
access to than chemical or nuclear weapons. And, critically, unlike either chemical 
or nuclear weapons, they can spread on their own. They can go viral, which is 
something that neither deadly sarin gas nor a dirty bomb could accomplish. Per- 
haps the only comparable situation is the long-term horror of some nuclear fallout 
expressing itself in generations of mutated offspring and high rates of cancer, as 
seen in Hiroshima. But those insidious effects are environmental and thus rela- 
tively slow. A fast-acting, fast-spreading viral weapon would have that impact over 
days, not decades. 
It would be a mistake to underestimate the risk for bioterror, and most who 
study it contend that it is just a matter of time before it’s unleashed on a human 
population. 
The fact that deadly microbes can be made to proliferate under lab conditions, 
whether in legitimate laboratories or fly-by-night terrorist workshops, adds another 
dimension to global pandemic risk. While exceptionally unlikely, if terrorists ever 
got their hands on one of the few remaining vials of smallpox, the results would be 
devastating. While smallpox has been eradicated in nature, two sets of smallpox 
stocks remain under lock and key—one at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control in 
Atlanta and one in the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology (VEC- 
TOR) in Koltsovo, Russia. Both facilities have high containment bio-safety level 4 
facilities. There’s been debate about possibly destroying the remaining stocks in 
these labs, but to date the decision has been deferred because of the potential ben- 
efit of access to live virus for the production of vaccines and drugs. 
Interestingly, in 2004 scabs from suspected smallpox were found in Santa Fe, 
New Mexico, in an envelope labeled as containing scabs from vaccination. The 
finding points to the possibility of other unknown lots of smallpox existing in a lab 
freezer or somewhere else. If they were released purposely or accidentally, the 
consequences would be devastating. Since smallpox has been eradicated, we no 
longer inoculate against it. So, for smallpox, such a release would be a perfect 
storm. For us, it would be catastrophe. 
Another risk is what is increasingly referred to as “bioerror.” Unlike bioterror, 
bioerror occurs when an agent is released accidentally but spreads widely. In 2009 
Don Burke, the mentor of my postdoctoral fellowship, published a paper on the 
emergence of influenza viruses. In it he analyzes a variety of influenza viruses that 
have spread in humans. One of the more interesting examples is the November 
1977 epidemic that affected the Soviet Union, Hong Kong, and northeastern China. 
The virus involved was nearly identical to a virus from an outbreak over twenty 
years before, and it hadn’t been seen since. Don and his colleagues echoed earlier 
research on the virus noting that the most likely explanation was that a lab strain 
had been accidently reintroduced into the lab workers and had spread from there.
Over the coming decades, as it becomes possible for the masses to have access 
to detailed biological information and the techniques to make or grow simple mi- 
crobes, the probability of bioterror and bioerror will only grow. While most people 
normally think of biology as occurring primarily in secure labs, this may not always 
be the way it works. In 2008 two teenage girls from New York City sent away spec- 
imens of sushi to the Barcode of Life Database project, a fascinating early program 
to simplify and standardize genetic testing. They wanted to determine if the high- 
priced fish that they were buying was what it was sold as. They found that often it 
wasn’t. But they also found a way to get genetic information that until then was 
only available to scientists. 
But the student sushi study was about more than discovering that some of the 
sushi vendors in New York City rip off their clients. It was one of the first notable 
examples of nonscientists “reading” genetic information. Early in the information 
technology revolution, only computer programmers could read and write code, like 
HTML. Then nonprogrammers began to read code, then write code, and now we all 
regularly read and write code on blogs, wikis, and games. As with any system of 
sharing information, what starts as something highly specialized often becomes 
universal. In the not-too-distant future, the small group of people conducting do-it- 
yourself biology may become the norm. In that world the need for monitoring to 
control bioerror will be more than just theoretical. In a famous prediction made by 
Sir Martin Rees, the former president of the Royal Society of London warned, “… by 
the year 2020 an instance of bioerror or bioterror will have killed a million people.” 
The chemistry to create a pipe bomb or a meth lab becomes the biology to create a 
viral bomb. 
  
In this chapter we will explore the next big killers—the microbial threats that keep 
me awake at night. Certainly, bioerror and bioterror are among them. The frequency 
of both of these threats will rise in the coming years, but at least for the moment, 
the greatest risks we face are still those that exist in nature. 
In some biological arenas, the age of discovery is over. We know the rate at 
which we’ll discover new species of primates, for example, will be very low indeed. 
For viruses, that’s not the case. My collaborator Mark Woolhouse, one of the early 
leaders in the field of emerging infectious diseases, has put together real numbers
on this. He and his colleagues have plotted the rate of discovery of new viruses 
since 1901. Their analysis suggests we’re nowhere near the end of viral discovery; 
we’ll find on average one or two viruses per year over the next ten years, and that’s 
likely a conservative estimate. 
One of the reasons contemporary scientists are finding new viruses is that we’re 
looking. Studies like the ones conducted by my research group, which we’ll dis- 
cuss in the coming chapters, actively seek to find unknown viruses in humans and 
new viruses lurking in animals that might be the next to jump. Genetic techniques 
for uncovering the unknown microbial world are also advancing, which makes find- 
ing these new agents easier and faster than ever. But intensive research and height- 
ened attention are not the only reasons we’re seeing new things. 
The combination of factors we’ve discussed in the previous chapters has cre- 
ated the perfect conditions for maintaining new agents in the human species. We 
live in a massively interconnected world. Links made by transport networks and 
medical technologies radically increase the probability that an animal virus that en- 
ters into us—no matter where—will be able to gain a foothold and spread. This 
means that while some of the new things we’re finding might have crossed over in 
the past, they haven’t persisted. From our perspective, they’re new. 


On February 21, 2003, a man at the Metropole Hotel in Hong Kong was sick—very 
sick. He had come from the nearby Guangdong province and had arrived at the up- 
scale hotel, which has a fitness center, restaurants, a bar, and a swimming pool. 
He stayed just one night in the now infamous room 911. And he would become 
among the most famous “super-spreaders” of modern history. 
A super-spreader is a person (or animal) who plays an outsized role in the spread 
of an infectious disease. The resident of room 911 at the Metropole had severe 
acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, and his virus spread to at least sixteen other 
individuals. They in turn spread the virus to hundreds of other individuals as they 
dispersed to the far points of the globe—Europe, Asia, North America. Even three 
months later, investigators were able to pull genetic information of the virus from 
the carpet near room 911, information that likely got there from his coughing, 
sneezing, or vomiting. 
We do not know exactly how the resident of room 911 became infected with the
SARS virus. It may have been through contact with an infected animal. We now 
know that SARS ultimately originated in bats. Because people in the Guangdong 
province commonly eat wild animals and purchase them in live animal markets, or 
wet markets, the resident of room 911 may have had contact with an infected bat 
purchased in one such market. Alternatively, he may have acquired the virus from a 
civet, a small carnivore and a delicacy in that region of China. By that time, civets 
had acquired the SARS virus from bats. Or he may have been infected from a per- 
son who had acquired the animal virus. Perhaps most likely the virus had spread 
undetected for some time before he got it himself. 
However the Metropole guest acquired the virus, his illness appears to have 
sparked the SARS pandemic that would follow, a pandemic that would go on to in- 
fect thousands of people in at least thirty-two countries on every inhabited conti- 
nent and have an economic impact measured in billions of dollars. The SARS pan- 
demic provides a perfect example of how our modern world cultivates pandemics. 
Hong Kong has a higher density of people living in it than almost any other city 
in the world and certainly higher than any city that existed prior to the twentieth 
century. Thousands of international flights going to just about any part of the world 
you can imagine originate in Hong Kong every day. It also sits a short drive from 
the Guangdong province of China. Guangdong houses hundreds of millions of 
people and its culinary history includes wild animal delicacies and dishes like pig 
organ soup. 
The combination of high human population densities, intense livestock produc- 
tion, close contact with the diverse microbes of wild animals, and a massive, effi- 
cient transportation network gives us a good sense of where the world is heading 
with regard to pandemics. Hunters begin the process by capturing wild animals 
and bringing them to markets, some of which exist in highly urban areas. The wet 
markets, which house live animals, pose particular risks. Once an animal has been 
killed, the microbes within it also begin to die, but if a living wild animal makes it 
to one of these urban markets, the entire panoply of its microbes are placed 
squarely in the midst of large numbers of humans. A virus that gets out here has 
definitely won the microbial lottery. 
While an interesting example, Guangdong is by no means unique. Regions that 
house important wildlife diversity are urbanizing at rapid rates throughout the en- 
tire world. Within the past few years, for the first time in human history, we became
a primarily urban species—more than 50 percent of the human population now 
lives in urban areas, and that number is growing. By 2050 it has been estimated 
that 70 percent of the world’s population will live in cities. And when highly dense 
urban populations, the microbes of wild animal and livestock populations, and effi- 
cient transportation networks overlap, new diseases will inevitably emerge. 


In Africa the particular course of development has provided another set of unique 
microbial risks. In central Africa, a region where I lived and worked for a number of 
years, the combination of urbanization, deforestation, road building, and con- 
sumption of wild game are conspiring to create a recipe for disease emergence. 
One of the most common economic activities among the Congo Basin coun- 
tries is logging. Unlike the clear-cutting that characterizes logging in some parts of 
the world, in central Africa most logging is selective. In selective logging, roads are 
cut into the relatively pristine regions with valuable trees, and workers are trans- 
ported into them to extract the timber. 
Logging in this way has a number of consequences for how viruses emerge. 
Among the first things that occur when a new logging camp opens is the large in- 
flux of workers. People arrive to clear roads, cut tracks, fell trees, haul trees, cut 
them, load them, and manage camps; they all come together to make temporary 
towns. The towns consume meat, and since most of the meat consumed in rural 
forested regions of central Africa is from wild game, local demand for hunting in- 
creases. This attracts more hunters and incentivizes them to hunt more. All of this 
serves to increase the number of animals caught and, therefore, the human contact 
with the blood, body fluids, and corresponding microbes of the animals present in 
these biodiverse habitats.
The existence of logging roads also leads to fundamental changes in the way 
that people can hunt. Historically, hunters lived in villages. Their daily hunting 
would radiate in a circular fashion from these villages, with decreased impact at the 
periphery of the hunting range. Logging roads provide a greater number of points 
at which hunters can enter the forest, lay traps, and make kills using firearms. This 
has been demonstrated through detailed studies in and around the Campo Ma’an 
National Park by the Cameroonian ecologist Germain Ngandjui. At the same time 
that forest access is increasing, the movement of trucks along the roads provides 
increased routes to urban markets, which in turn increases the number of hunters 
who engage in the practice. 
Whether from the pressures of the workers themselves or the roads they create, 
the practice of logging changes the frequency at which humans have contact with 
wild game. The more contact that occurs, the better the chance that a new agent 
will jump over. This is compounded by the interconnectivity discussed in chapter 
6. The villages are remote, but they are connected by road to major ports, where 
the logs (and microbes) can be put on ships and moved throughout the world. 
Our work in some of the most rural regions in central Africa provides clear evi- 
dence that even seemingly remote places are most definitely on the grid. We regu- 
larly screen for potentially pandemic viruses like influenza, and we see evidence of 
the globally circulating pandemic H1N1 even in villages in the middle of the forest. 
And while we certainly see unusual viruses that are local, we also see cosmopolitan 
strains of HIV that have worked their way down the road to infect people living in 
distant rural lands. New agents can increasingly get in and out of even the most re- 
mote locales. 


Sometimes multiple factors accumulate to compound the emerging pandemic 
threats. This is exactly what’s happened with the global spread of HIV and its asso- 
ciated impact on the human immune system. As we’ve discussed, HIV originally 
entered into humans from chimpanzees almost certainly through the hunting and 
butchering of these animals by people in central Africa. But now that it’s in human 
populations, spreading and infecting such a large number of us, it has the potential
to alter the emergence equation. 
Among the terrible consequences of AIDS is that it hampers the immune sys- 
tem. In fact, when people die of AIDS, they don’t die of HIV per se. They die be- 
cause they eventually succumb to infectious diseases that their immune systems 
can no longer control. Approximately 1 percent of the human population worldwide 
is immunodeficient. While malnutrition, therapies for cancer, and organ transplan- 
tation play a role, the most significant factor is global infection with HIV. 
Immunodeficiency leads to the proliferation of a whole range of usual suspects. 
Agents like tuberculosis and salmonella multiply more effectively in immunosup- 
pressed people. Common agents that aren’t normally deadly can become fatal 
when immune systems are weak. Viruses like cytomegalovirus and human her- 
pesvirus 8 afflict AIDS sufferers. But immunosuppression can also provide an 
entryway for new agents. 
Most animal agents don’t come preadapted to humans. Even microbes from 
some of our closest relatives often require a combination of genetic changes in 
order to be able to survive and spread in a human host. So when a highly exposed 
person like a hunter contracts a new agent, the infection will generally be fleeting. 
Yet in an immunocompromised host, quickly evolving microbes can often gain 
precious time, free of immune pressure, to go through a few more generations of 
reproduction, increasing the probability that they will come upon the right suite of 
adaptations necessary to take hold in a new species. 
And it doesn’t stop there. Sometimes a new virus will cross over into someone 
who has been exposed to an animal, but the virus will go nowhere. The existence of 
numerous immunosuppressed people in a community will, however, increase the 
chance that the virus can begin the process of spreading once it adapts to humans. 
Immunosuppression, as caused by HIV or another compromising agent, provides 
another foothold for new microbes as they cross the elusive species barrier. 
This risk is not trivial. In 2007, along with my colleagues, I reported the results 
of a study we’d done in Cameroon to determine the rate of HIV in individuals who 
had contact with wild animals through hunting or butchering. We analyzed data 
from 191 HIV-infected people living in rural villages near forested settings. The vast 
majority of the individuals we studied reported butchering and consuming wild 
animals. Over half of the people reported butchering monkeys or apes. Most wor- 
rying, 17 of the HIV-positive individuals reported injuries while they’d hunted and
butchered wild animals—perfect opportunities for direct blood-to-blood contact 
and bridging of blood-borne microbes. 
The fact that people in direct contact with the blood and body fluids of wild ani- 
mals also have HIV and may be immunocompromised represents a serious risk for 
the emergence of new microbes. Hunting and butchering provide opportunities for 
contact with the microbes present in virtually every animal tissue. When these 
agents are regularly in contact with people with limited defenses, it may provide a 
shortcut for microbes as they traverse the boundaries between species. 


Hunting and butchering create serious risks, but even contemporary industrial live- 
stock practices, including factory farms and modern meat production, substantially 
alter the ways in which we interact with animals in our world. They also increase 
the probability that an animal virus will spill over into humans and become a pan- 
demic. 
Livestock production has changed dramatically over the past forty or so years. 
One of the major changes has been raw numbers (so to speak). There are now 
more than one billion cattle, one billion pigs, and over twenty billion chickens liv- 
ing on our planet. There are estimated to be more domestic animals alive today 
than in all the past ten thousand years of domestication through 1960 combined. 
Yet this is not simply a numbers game. How the animals are grown and grouped 
has also dramatically shifted. 
In 1967 the United States had around a million pig farms. As of 2005, the num- 
ber had shrunk to a little over one hundred thousand. More pigs and fewer farms 
means that more and more pigs are packed together on single large-scale industrial 
farms. The same trends exist with other livestock species. In the United States four 
massive companies produce over half of the cattle, pigs, and chickens. And this is 
not limited to the United States. More than half of the livestock produced globally 
now originate in industrial farm settings. 
While it’s more economically efficient to grow livestock in industrial settings 
there are consequences for microbes. As we’ve seen with humans, larger numbers 
of livestock grouped more closely together increases the capacity of livestock pop- 
ulations to maintain novel microbes. The animals living on massive industrial 
farms largely do not exist in a state of perfect isolation. Contact with blood-feeding
insects, rodents, birds, and bats all provide the opportunity for new agents to enter 
into these incredibly massive colonies of animals. When they do, the industrial 
farms become far more than settings to grow meat. They become incubators for 
infectious agents that could move into human populations. We have seen this 
occur with Nipah virus in Malaysian pigs, as discussed in chapter 4. Other viruses 
like Japanese encephalitis and influenza can act in similar ways.¹ 
The number of livestock on the planet now boggles the mind, but the way that 
they’re transformed into meat also differs in important ways from how it’s been 
done since domestication began. Historically, a single animal would feed a family 
or at most a village. With the advent of processed meats, a single hot dog con- 
sumed at a baseball game can consist of multiple species (pig, turkey, cattle) and 
contain meat derived from hundreds of animals. When you bite into that hot dog, 
you’re literally biting into what was only a few decades ago an entire farm. 
Combining the meat of many animals and then distributing it to many people 
has obvious consequences. Connecting thousands of animals with thousands of 
consumers means that an average meat eater today will consume bits of millions 
of animals during their lifetimes. What previously was a direct connection between 
one animal and one consumer is now a massively interconnected network of ani- 
mal parts and those that eat them. And while cooking the meat certainly eliminates 
many of the risks, the massive number of interactions increases the potential that a 
rogue agent will make the jump. 


This is what appears to have happened in the case of the sheep disease scrapie and 
bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), better known as mad cow disease. BSE 
is among the fascinating group of infectious agents known as prions, mentioned in 
chapter 1. Unlike viruses, bacteria, parasites, and any other group of life we know of 
on the planet, prions lack the genetic blueprints of biology (i.e., RNA and DNA). 
Rather than the combination of genetic material and proteins that make up all other 
known life, prions simply have protein. While this may seem insufficient to accom- 
plish any organic task, prions are capable of spreading. And they can cause serious 
disease. 
BSE was first identified as a novel cattle disease in November 1986 because of 
the dramatic symptoms it causes in cows. They walk and stand abnormally, and 

after some months they experience violent convulsions and death. While there’s 
still some debate about its origins in cows, it appears that it came from sheep. 
During the 1960s and 1970s as the development of cattle feed was industrialized, 
one type of cow feed involved the rendering of sheep carcasses into meat and bone 
meal. Sheep have long been known to have a prion disease called scrapie, and it 
appears that processing their carcasses as cattle feed permitted the agent to jump 
over and adapt. 
Once it jumped to cattle, BSE then spread through more feed. Some cattle car- 
casses, like sheep carcasses, are also ground into feed for cattle. It appears that 
once the prion crossed from sheep to cattle, its primary communication was 
through infected cattle meat and bone meal processed for the next generation of 
cows.² The spread was remarkably effective. Some have suggested that during this 
period more than a million infected cows may have entered into the food chain. 
But not all of these prions stayed in cows. 
Around ten years after the first identification of BSE, physicians in the UK began 
to recognize a fatal neurodegenerative disease among humans who were poten- 
tially exposed to contaminated beef. The patients showed evidence of dementia, 
severe twitching, and an increasing deterioration of muscle coordination. Evidence 
from the patients’ brains revealed that they had been ravaged in exactly the same 
ways as those of the cows. Experimental evidence showed that the disease could 
also be transmitted to primates whose brains were inoculated with brain tissue 
from infected humans. These human patients had been infected with BSE, but 
when found in humans, the same disease is called variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) 
disease. 
While only twenty-four human cases of vCJD have been confirmed to date, there 
are certainly others, as the definitive diagnosis is difficult to make. Much is still un- 
known about vCJD, but it’s increasingly suspected that infected humans must have 
both genetic susceptibility for the deadly brain disorder as well as exposure to in- 
fected cow tissue. Analysis of the tonsils and appendixes removed from healthy pa- 
tients suggests that as many as one in four thousand people who were exposed 
during the UK BSE epidemic are carriers who show no sign of disease. This is par- 
ticularly worrying since vCJD has been shown to pass through organ transplan- 
tation and may also pass through blood transfusions.


The way that we now grow and distribute meat differs fundamentally from how we 
did it in the past. We also transport live animals in new ways. The relative ease of 
international shipping means that people can move livestock from regions that 
were once remote. And the situation is not unique to animals. Many of our plant 
food sources are now transported thousands of miles and eaten by millions before 
any microbial contamination related illness would be detected. 
In chapter 6 we discussed how monkeypox rates are rising in DRC. But mon- 
keypox has not been restricted to Africa. In 2003 monkeypox hit the United States. 
Careful investigation of the 2003 US outbreak showed that it emerged from a sin- 
gle pet store—Phil’s Pocket Pets of Villa Park, Illinois. On April 9 of that year, 
around eight hundred rodents representing nine different species were shipped 
from Ghana to Texas. The shipment included six different groups of African ro- 
dents, including Gambian giant rats, brush-tailed porcupines, and multiple species 
of mice and squirrel. Subsequent testing by the CDC showed that Gambian giant 
rats, dormice, and rope squirrels from the shipment were all infected with 
monkeypox, which likely spread among the animals during shipment. Some of the 
infected Gambian rats ended up in close proximity to prairie dogs at the Illinois pet 
store, and those prairie dogs appear to have seeded the human outbreak. 
Over the following months there were a total of ninety-three human cases of 
monkeypox in six midwestern states and New Jersey. And while most of them 
probably resulted from direct contact with infected prairie dogs, some may very 
well have resulted from human-to-human transmission. 


The moving and mingling of animals as pets and food increases the probability 
that new agents will enter into the human population. It also increases the chances 
that distinct microbes will end up in the same host and exchange genes. As dis- 
cussed earlier, there are multiple ways in which a virus can change genetically: di- 
rect changes in genetic information (mutation) or the exchange of genetic infor- 
mation (recombination and reassortment). The first option, genetic mutation, pro- 
vides an important mechanism for slow and steady production of genetic novelty. 
The second options, genetic recombination and reassortment, provide viruses with

the capacity to quickly gain entirely novel genetic identities. When two viruses in- 
fect the same host, they have the potential to recombine, exchanging genetic infor- 
mation and possibly creating a completely new “mosaic” agent. 
This has already occurred to important effect. As we learned in chapter 2, HIV it- 
self represents a mosaic virus—two monkey viruses, which at some point infected 
a single chimpanzee, recombined and became the ancestral form of HIV. Similarly, 
influenza viruses have the capacity to pick up entirely new groups of genes by 
forming these mosaics through reassortment, where entire genes are swapped. 
Influenza viruses can reassort on the farms where humans, pigs, and birds 
interact. Pigs have the potential to acquire some human influenza viruses. They 
also can acquire viruses from birds, including wild birds that may pass through on 
migration routes. These wild birds can infect pigs directly or indirectly through 
domestic birds such as chickens and ducks. When new viruses from birds interact 
with human viruses in an animal such as a pig, one of the outcomes is a com- 
pletely new influenza virus with some parts from the circulating human virus and 
some parts from the bird virus. These new viruses can spread dramatically when 
reintroduced into human beings since they can differ sufficiently to avoid detection 
by natural antibodies and vaccines from earlier circulating influenza strains. 
Recombination plays a potentially vital role in a number of viruses. Genetic 
analyses of SARS show that it’s likely a recombinant virus between a bat coron- 
avirus and another virus, probably a separate bat virus we have yet to discover. 
These two viruses formed a novel recombinant mosaic virus prior to infecting hu- 
mans and civets. These viruses’ potential to recombine may very well have related 
to the interaction of animals that previously would never have been in contact in 
the wild, as they made their way along market networks. 
My mentor Don Burke, who now leads the University of Pittsburgh’s School of 
Public Health, has played a pivotal role in pointing out how recombination be- 
tween viruses can help seed new epidemics. He coined the term emerging genes to 
refer to this process. Historically, virologists thought that new epidemics result 
from the movement of an entire microbe from an animal to a human. As we’ve 
seen in HIV, influenza, and SARS, recombination and reassortment provide other 
more stealthy methods to seed new epidemics. Rather than transplant an entire 
new microbe, two microbes, one old and one new, can temporarily interact in a sin- 
gle host and exchange genetic material. The resulting modified agent may have the

potential to spread and become a completely new, and completely unprepared for, 
pandemic. In these cases it’s actually newly swapped genetic information that 
causes the pandemic rather than a new microbe—hence the term emerging genes. 


In the coming years we’ll see more and more pandemic threats. New infectious 
agents will spread and cause disease. New pandemics will emerge as we go deeper 
into the rain forests and unleash the agents previously unconnected to interna- 
tional transportation networks. These agents will spread as dense population cen- 
ters, local culinary practices, and wild-animal trade increasingly intersect. The im- 
pact of epidemics will be augmented by HIV-caused immunosuppression that in- 
creases the risk of new agents adapting to a damaged human species. As we move 
animals quickly and efficiently around the world, they will, in turn, seed new epi- 
demics. Microbes that have never encountered each other now will, and they’ll 
form new mosaic agents capable of spreading in ways that neither of their parents 
could manage. In short, we’ll experience a wave of new epidemics, ones that will 
devastate us if we don’t learn to better anticipate and control them.